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When the Indiana Pacers trailed the Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points with 2 minutes and 52 seconds left in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, ESPN’s win probability model gave the Pacers only a 3.6% chance to win.
Not only did the Pacers overcome that deficit to win 111-110 and take a 1-0 lead in the series, that wasn’t even Indiana’s most improbable comeback this postseason.
The Pacers have become the masters of the come-from-behind victory in the 2025 playoffs, pulling off at least one miracle in each round.
In Game 5 of the conference quarterfinals, Indiana overcame a 7-point deficit against the Milwaukee Bucks in the final 39 seconds of overtime — when the Pacers’ odds of winning were only 2.1% — and won 119-118.
In Game 2 of the conference semifinals, Indiana had only a 4.1% chance of winning when it trailed the Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 with 57.1 seconds to go, but the Pacers ultimately won 120-119.
And in Game 1 of the conference finals, Indiana pulled off a never-before-seen comeback against the New York Knicks, rallying from 14 points down with 2 minutes and 51 seconds to go in the fourth quarter before winning 138-135 in overtime — the odds of which were 0.3%.
While winning even one of these games was a highly improbable task for the Pacers, winning all four was extremely unlikely.
How unlikely, exactly? Well, you’d have a better chance of being struck by lightning, for starters.
Here’s how the Pacers’ four biggest comebacks stack up against some other rare events.
