Lee Jae-myung projected to win South Korean presidency, ending months of political turmoil

A liberal lawyer has ousted South Korea’s troubled ruling party’s presidential candidate on Tuesday, ending months of political instability that began with a botched declaration of martial law.

A joint exit poll by three major broadcasters, KBS, MBC and SBS, showed that, with 51.7% of the vote, Lee Jae-myung was well ahead of his conservative rival, Kim Moon-soo, who garnered 39.3%. Another pollster, JoWon C&I, had Lee further ahead with 55.1% of the vote and Kim 36.7%.

NBC News could not independently confirm the results of the surveys. But should they prove correct, Lee, 61, will be sworn in as president of the key U.S. ally on Wednesday.

The election took place six months to the day after then-President Yoon Suk Yeol shocked the East Asian democracy of more than 50 million people by abruptly declaring martial law, citing threats from “anti-state forces” and accusing the opposition-controlled parliament of paralyzing the government.

Led by Lee, lawmakers impeached Yoon on Dec. 14 over the short-lived order, after which South Korea was led by a series of acting presidents. The leadership vacuum has hampered South Korea in Washington at a time when it is trying to negotiate with the Trump administration over a 25% “reciprocal” tariff and other levies.

Lee, 61, who narrowly lost to Yoon in 2022, had been considered the most likely to succeed Yoon since his impeachment. The election was triggered in April when Yoon’s impeachment was upheld by South Korea’s Constitutional Court.

But South Korean voters were animated more by anger at Yoon’s conservative People Power Party than an affinity for Lee.

“His victory is not thanks to any particular policy proposals, but rather a result of Yoon’s spectacular collapse,” said Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.

The martial law episode has deeply unsettled South Korea, which spent decades under military-authoritarian rule. It has also worsened polarization between liberals and conservatives in the country, with regular rallies held for and against Yoon and a presidential campaign filled with personal attacks.

Some voters directed their anger at Kim, the candidate for Yoon’s former People Power Party, even though Yoon left the party last month in an effort to help his campaign.

“I believe that Lee will restore the democratic system and establish a democratic government,” said Lee Jung Sup, a company executive in Seoul. “Then, our economy will be revitalized.”

Kim, who was labor minister under Yoon, opposed his impeachment but criticized the martial law declaration. Supporters pointed to Kim’s squeaky-clean record, contrasting it with Lee’s involvement in several criminal trials.

“It is unfair to reflect the martial law declared by the former president onto Kim,” said Oh Chang-soo, a retired religious leader in his 60s.

Lee’s vows to punish those involved in the martial law order have raised fears of further political turmoil. Yoon is still standing trial on charges of insurrection, a crime that is punishable by death or life in prison.

Lee said this week that besides addressing economic concerns and internal division, his main priority is reaching a trade deal with the United States.

In addition to the 25% tariff — which is set to take effect July 9 —South Korea’s trade-dependent economy is vulnerable to sector-specific U.S. levies on some of its most important exports, such as steel and automobiles.

Asked about Trump’s tendency to pressure his negotiating partners, Lee said, “That’s a kind of political behavior exhibited by powerful nations, and we must endure it well.”

“If the president of the Republic of Korea’s kowtowing briefly would allow 52 million people to thrive, then he must do so,” he told South Korea’s Christian Broadcasting System on Monday, using the country’s formal name.

While Trump is a formidable figure, Lee said, diplomacy should be mutually beneficial, and “I’m not an easy opponent either.”

“We have a fair number of cards to play,” he said. “There are things to give and take on both sides.”